Cancer mortality predictions for 2024 in selected Asian countries and Australia with focus on stomach cancer.

INTRODUCTION: We estimated cancer mortality figures in five major Asian countries and Australia for 2024, focusing on stomach cancer, a leading cause of cancer-related deaths in Eastern Asia. METHODS: We computed country- and sex-specific annual age-standardized rates (ASRs) for total cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites, using WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases from 1970 to 2021 or the latest available year. We predicted figures for 2024 and estimated the number of avoided cancer deaths in 1994-2024. RESULTS: All cancers combined ASR declined between 2015-2019 and 2024 across considered countries and sexes. In 2024, the lowest predicted male rate is in the Philippines (75.0/100 000) and the highest in Australia (94.2/100 000). The Republic of Korea is predicted to have the lowest female ASR (42.1/100 000) while the Philippines the highest (74.5/100 000). Over the last three decades, 121 300 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Hong Kong SAR, 69 500 in Israel, 1 246 300 in Japan, 653 300 in the Republic of Korea, 303 300 in Australia, and 89 700 among Philippine men. Mortality from stomach cancer has been decreasing since 1970 in all considered countries and both sexes. Significant decreases are at all age groups Male rates remain, however, high in Japan (8.7/100 000) and the Republic of Korea (6.2/100 000). CONCLUSION: Declining cancer mortality is predicted in the considered countries, notably reducing stomach cancer burden. Stomach cancer, however, remains a major public health issue in East Asia.

Uterine cancer deaths certified as part unspecified: an unsolved issue.

OBJECTIVE: A large percentage of uterine cancer deaths worldwide are not attributed to the cervix or corpus, but classified as uterus part 'unspecified'. We provided the trend for the proportion of uterine cancer deaths certified as 'unspecified' in selected countries. METHODS: We derived the proportions of 'unspecified' uterine cancers for 20 selected high- and middle-income countries with reliable death certification over the period 1994-2021, using official mortality data from the WHO database coded according to the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases. RESULTS: For the earliest available year, the proportion of deaths classified as 'unspecified' uterine cancers ranged from 5.8% in Mexico to 65.6% in Italy. In some countries only, this proportion decreased over time. For 10 countries the proportion of 'unspecified' uterus in the most recent available year was around 20%. The proportion of deaths at 20-44 years registered as uterus 'unspecified' was lower for all countries during the study period. CONCLUSION: A substantial number of uterine cancer deaths worldwide coded as 'unspecified' was observed, also in high-income countries where death certification for other common neoplasms is accurate. Valid attribution of uterine cancer deaths to the cervix or corpus is feasible and should be adopted.

Global trends in anal cancer incidence and mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Anal cancer is a rare disease, affecting more frequently women than men, mainly related to human papillomavirus infection (HPV). Rising incidence and mortality have been reported over the past four decades in different countries. METHODS: To provide an up-to-date overview of recent trends in mortality from anal cancer, we analysed death certification data provided by the WHO in selected countries worldwide over the period from 1994 to 2020. We also analysed incidence derived from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1990 to 2012 for all histologies as well as for anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). RESULTS: The highest age-standardised mortality rates around 2020 were registered in Central and Eastern Europe, such as Slovakia (0.9/100 000 men and 0.40/100 000 women), in the UK (0.24/100 000 men and 0.35/100 000 women), and Denmark (0.33/100 000 for both sexes), while the lowest ones were in the Philippines, Mexico, and Japan, with rates below 0.10/100 000 in both sexes. Upwards trends in mortality were reported in most countries for both sexes. Similarly, incidence patterns were upward or stable in most countries considered for both sexes. In 2008-2012, Germany showed the highest incidence rates (1.65/100 000 men and 2.16/100 000 women). CONCLUSION: Attention towards vaccination against HPV, increased awareness of risk factors, mainly related to sexual behaviours and advancements in early diagnosis and management are required to control anal cancer incidence and mortality.

Working alliance in treating staff and patients with Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorder living in Residential Facilities.

OBJECTIVES: Working Alliance (WA) is important in the care of patients with Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders (SSD). This study aims to determine which sociodemographic and clinical factors are associated with WA, as assessed by patients and staff members in Residential Facilities (RFs), and may predict WA dyads' discrepancies. METHODS: Three hundred and three SSD patients and 165 healthcare workers were recruited from 98 RFs and characterized for sociodemographic features. WA was rated by the Working Alliance Inventory (WAI) for patients (WAI-P) and staff members (WAI-T). SSD patients were assessed for the severity of psychopathology and psychosocial functioning. RESULTS: Pearson's correlation revealed a positive correlation (ρ = .314; p < .001) between WAI-P and WAI-T ratings. Linear regression showed that patients with higher education reported lower WAI-P ratings (ß = -.50, p = .044), while not being engaged in work or study was associated with lower WAI-T scores (ß = -4.17, p = .015). A shorter lifetime hospitalization was associated with higher WAI-P ratings (ß = 5.90, p = .008), while higher psychopathology severity negatively predicted WAI-T (ß = -.10, p = .002) and WAI-P ratings (ß = -.19, p < .001). Better functioning level positively foresaw WAI-T (ß = .14, p < .001) and WAI-P ratings (ß = .12, p < .001). Regarding discrepancies, staff members' age was associated with higher dyads discrepancy in Total scale and Agreement subscale scores, which were also associated with more severe negative symptoms, while patients' age was negatively correlated to Relationship subscale discrepancy. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insight into the factors that influence WA in SSD patients and health workers in RFs. The findings address interventions to improve WA and ultimately patient outcomes.

Global trends in esophageal cancer mortality with predictions to 2025, and in incidence by histotype.

BACKGROUND: Esophageal cancer (EC) is a malignancy with a poor prognosis. We provided a global overview of EC mortality, analyzing figures over the last three decades and estimating mortality rates for the year 2025. We also reported incidence trends and the distribution of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (AC) in selected countries. METHODS: We considered EC trends in the age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) from the World Health Organization database for selected countries. To estimate the number of deaths and ASMRs for 2025, we applied a Poisson linear regression model to the latest trend segment identified using a joinpoint model. We reported EC incidence trends according to histology using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database for the calendar period of 1990-2012. RESULTS: In 2015-19, the male ASMRs/100,000 were 4.01 in the EU-27, 4.28 in the USA, and 5.10 in Japan. The corresponding female rates ranged from 0.82 to 0.85/100,000. Male mortality showed a decreasing trend in most countries analyzed, with earlier and steeper declines in southern Europe. Conversely, ASMRs were increasing in Belarus, Finland, Greece, and Cuba. Female mortality showed a slight increase in several European countries, while North America, Latin America, and Australasia showed favorable trends. Projections suggest that male EC mortality is expected to decline in all countries except the Russian Federation. Female favorable trends are also predicted in most countries, except for France, Germany, the Russian Federation, and Canada. SCC remained the most common histotype, but AC incidence showed an upward trend, particularly in high-income countries. CONCLUSION: The observed trends in EC mortality reflect variations in patterns of major risk factors. Effective control of risk factors would contribute to reducing the burden of EC, together with early diagnosis and potential improvements in treatments.

Cancers attributable to overweight and obesity in Italy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Overweight and obesity are associated with multiple cancers. We quantified the burden of cancer attributable to overweight and obesity in Italy. METHODS: We estimated sex- and cancer site-specific population attributable fractions (PAFs) combining relative risks (from recent meta-analyses) with national obesity prevalence data (from a large sample survey conducted in 2005, to account for a 15-year lag period). Using nationwide mortality statistics and cancer registries data, we estimated the number of cancer cases and deaths attributable to overweight and obesity in Italy in 2020, based on the counterfactual scenario of a body mass index < 25 kg/m2. RESULTS: 3.6% of cancers in men and 4.0% in women in Italy were attributable to overweight and obesity, corresponding, respectively, to over 6900 and 7200 diagnoses in 2020. Attributable deaths were over 3600 in men and 2700 in women. PAFs (attributable cases) of overweight and obesity in men and women were, respectively, 38.1% (215 cases) and 21.8% (49 cases) for esophageal adenocarcinoma, 19.1% (1715 cases) and 14.5% (585 cases) for liver, 18.7% (1692 cases) and 16.7% (747 cases) for kidney, 13.7% (938 cases) and 10.1% (749 cases) for pancreatic, and 10.2% (2389 cases) and 3.4% (690 cases) for colorectal cancers. In women, PAFs were 22.3% (1859 cases) for endometrial and 5.7% (2556 cases) for post-menopausal breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The cancer burden associated with overweight and obesity in Italy is considerable, but smaller compared to other high income countries, likely because of the lower prevalence of overweight and obesity in the Italian population.

Ecological monitoring of emotional intensity, variability, and instability in individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders: Results of a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating emotional experiences in the life of people with Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorder (SSD) is fundamental for developing interventions aimed at promoting well-being in specific times and contexts. However, little is known about emotional variability in this population. In DiAPAson project, we evaluated between- and within-person differences in emotional intensity, variability, and instability between people with SSD and healthy controls, and the association with psychiatric severity and levels of functioning. METHODS: 102 individuals diagnosed with SSD (57 residential patients, 46 outpatients) and 112 healthy controls were thoroughly evaluated. Daily emotions were prospectively assessed with Experience Sampling Method eight times a day for a week. Statistical analyses included ANOVA, correlations, and generalized linear models. RESULTS: Participants with SSD, and especially residential patients, had a higher intensity of negative emotions when compared to controls. Moreover, all people with SSD reported a greater between-person-variability of both positive and negative emotions and greater intra-variability of negative emotions than healthy controls. In addition, the emotion variability in people with SSD does not follow a linear or quadratic trend but is more "chaotic" if compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS: Adequate assessments of positive and negative emotional experiences and their time course in people with SSD can assist mental health professionals with well-being assessment, implementing targeted interventions through the identification of patterns, triggers, and potential predictors of emotional states.

Daily time use among individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and unaffected controls: Results from the DiAPAson multicentric project.

OBJECTIVE: In the framework of daily time use, physical activity, and interpersonal relationships in patients with schizophrenia project, we aimed to investigate (a) within and between-group differences in daily time use of individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs) and unaffected controls, stratifying them by age, sex, and employment status; (b) the associations between daily time use, the severity of psychiatric symptoms, and psychosocial functioning amongst those with SSD. METHOD: From October 2020 to October 2021, 306 outpatients and 312 individuals living in residential facilities (RFs) with SSD were recruited from 37 centers across Italy and compared on a measure of daily time use with 113 people unaffected by mental health problems. Statistical analyses included chi-squared tests, analysis of variance tests, t tests, Pearson's correlations, and nonparametric corresponding tests. RESULTS: Individuals with SSD spent significantly more time in sedentary activities, leisure, and religious activities than unaffected controls, independent of age, sex, and employment status. Unaffected controls and outpatients spent more time engaged in productive activities than patients in RFs. Among the latter group, time spent in productive activities decreased significantly after 45 years of age, while time spent in self-care activities increased. Spending time engaged in sedentary activities was associated with greater severity of psychiatric symptoms and lower levels of functioning. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This study provides a deep understanding of how individuals with SSD spend their time and how this is associated with the severity of their mental health problems. These findings highlight the need for proactive rehabilitation programs to promote productive occupation and social inclusion of people with SSD. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Attributable Fraction of Cancer Related to Occupational Exposure in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to occupational carcinogens is an important and avoidable cause of cancer. We aimed to provide an evidence-based estimate of the burden of occupation-related cancers in Italy. METHODS: The attributable fraction (AF) was calculated based on the counterfactual scenario of no occupational exposure to carcinogens. We included exposures classified as IARC group 1 and with reliable evidence of exposure in Italy. Relative risk estimates for selected cancers and prevalences of exposure were derived from large-scale studies. Except for mesothelioma, a 15-20-year latency period between exposure and cancer was considered. The data on cancer incidence in 2020 and mortality in 2017 in Italy were obtained from the Italian Association of Cancer Registries. RESULTS: The most prevalent exposures were UV radiation (5.8%), diesel exhaust (4.3%), wood dust (2.3%) and silica dust (2.1%). Mesothelioma had the largest AF to occupational carcinogens (86.6%), followed by sinonasal cancer (11.8%) and lung cancer (3.8%). We estimated that 0.9% of cancer cases (N~3500) and 1.6% of cancer deaths (N~2800) were attributable to occupational carcinogens in Italy. Of these, about 60% were attributable to asbestos, 17.5% to diesel exhaust, followed by chromium and silica dust (7% and 5%). CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates provide up-to-date quantification of the low, but persistent, burden of occupational cancers in Italy.

Openness buffers the impact of Belief in Conspiracy Theories on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: Evidence from a large, representative Italian sample.

As COVID-19 continues to incur enormous personal and societal costs, widespread vaccination against the virus remains the most effective strategy to end the pandemic. However, vaccine hesitancy is rampant and has been steadily rising for decades. Seeking to remedy this, personality psychologists have begun to explore psychological drivers of vaccine hesitancy, including the Big Five. Openness to Experience presents itself as a vexing case as previous attempts to study its association with vaccine hesitancy have yielded mixed findings. In this preregistered study, we hypothesise that the impact of Openness to Experience on Vaccine Hesitancy depends on its interplay with other factors, namely conspiracy beliefs. To test this, we apply logistic regressions, simple slopes analyses, and propensity score matching to a nationally representative sample of 2500 Italian citizens, collected in May 2021. Contrary to our original hypothesis (i.e., Openness will have a positive association with Vaccine Hesitancy at high - and a negative at low - levels of Conspiracy Beliefs) we find that high Openness diminishes the impact of Belief in Conspiracy Theories on Vaccine Hesitancy. Consistent with previous research, we propose that Openness serves as a buffer against extreme positions by allowing individuals to be exposed to a greater diversity of information.

Cancer mortality predictions for 2023 in Latin America with focus on stomach cancer.

OBJECTIVE: We estimated cancer mortality statistics for the current year in seven major Latin American countries. METHODS: We retrieved official death certification data and population figures from the WHO and the United Nations databases for the 1970-2020 calendar period. We considered mortality from all neoplasms combined and for 10 major cancer sites. We estimated the number of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for the year 2023. RESULTS: Age-standardized mortality rates for all cancers combined are predicted to decline in all countries, in both sexes, apart from Venezuelan women. The lowest predicted total cancer mortality rates are in Mexico, 69.8/100 000 men and 62.5/100 000 women. The highest rates are in Cuba with 133.4/100 000 men and 90.2/100 000 women. Stomach cancer is predicted to decline steadily in all countries considered, but remains the first-ranking site for men in Chile (14.3/100 000) and Colombia (11/100 000). Colorectal cancer rates also tended to decline but remain comparatively high in Argentina (14/100 000 men). Breast cancer rates were high in Argentinian women (16.5/100 000) though they tended to decline in all countries. Lung cancer mortality rates are also predicted to decline, however, rates remain exceedingly high in Cuba (30.5/100 000 men and 17.2/100 000 women) as opposed to Mexico (5.6/100 000 men and 3.2/10 000 women). Declines are also projected for cancer of the uterus, but rates remain high, particularly in Argentina and Cuba (10/100 000 women), and Venezuela (13/100 000 women) due to inadequate screening and cervical cancer control. CONCLUSION: Certified cancer mortality remains generally lower in Latin America (apart from Cuba), as compared to North America and Europe; this may be partly due to death certification validity.

Cancers attributable to infectious agents in Italy.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an evidence-based, comprehensive assessment of the current burden of infection-related cancers in Italy. METHODS: We calculated the proportion of cancers attributable to infectious agents (Helicobacter pylori [Hp]; hepatitis B virus [HBV] and hepatitis C virus [HCV]; human papillomavirus [HPV]; human herpesvirus-8 [HHV8]; Epstein-Barr virus [EBV]; and human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]) to estimate the burden of infection-related cancer incidence (2020) and mortality (2017). Data on the prevalence of infections were derived from cross-sectional surveys of the Italian population, and relative risks from meta-analyses and large-scale studies. Attributable fractions were calculated based on the counterfactual scenario of a lack of infection. RESULTS: We estimated that 7.6% of total cancer deaths in 2017 were attributable to infections, with a higher proportion in men (8.1%) than in women (6.9%). The corresponding figures for incident cases were 6.5%, 6.9% and 6.1%. Hp was the first cause of infection-related cancer deaths (3.3% of the total), followed by HCV (1.8%), HIV (1.1%), HBV (0.9%), HPV, EBV and HHV8 (each ≤0.7%). Regarding incidence, 2.4% of the new cancer cases were due to Hp, 1.3% due to HCV, 1.2% due to HIV, 1.0% due to HPV, 0.6% due to HBV and <0.5% due to EBV and HHV8. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimate of 7.6% of cancer deaths and 6.9% of incident cases that were attributable to infections in Italy is higher than those estimated in other developed countries. Hp is the major cause of infection-related cancer in Italy. Prevention, screening and treatment policies are needed to control these cancers, which are largely avoidable.

Trends in gastric cancer mortality 1990-2019 in 36 countries worldwide, with predictions to 2025, and incidence, overall and by subtype.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer (GC) incidence is declining heterogeneously worldwide. We aimed to calculate updated mortality trends for GC. METHODS: We investigated time trends for selected countries using the World Health Organization database. We computed age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 persons over the 1990-2019 period. We reported rates for the 2010-2014 and 2015-19 calendar periods, and the corresponding percent changes. We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify changes in the slope of mortality trends, and predict the number of deaths and rates for 2025. We also reported 2008-2012 incidence rates of cardia and noncardia GC. RESULTS: Mortality trends from GC have been favorable since 1990 for all countries analyzed and the European Union (EU 27), in both sexes and all ages. GC mortality is predicted to decline in all countries for both sexes, except for French and US women aged 35-64 years, and Canadian men aged 35-64. The highest proportions of cardia GC were observed in Northern and Central Europe while the lowest ones in Southern and Eastern Europe. Elsewhere, the highest proportions were registered in countries with low incidence and mortality rates, whereas high-mortality countries showed lower proportions of cardia GC. CONCLUSION: Observed and predicted GC mortality trends declined in most countries in both sexes, with few exceptions, likely due to the control of GC risk factors, in particular Hp infection.

Mortality patterns of soft-tissue sarcomas worldwide up to 2018, with predictions for 2025.

OBJECTIVE: The epidemiological evidence on soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) mortality is inconsistent in geographic and time coverage. This study provides mortality trends for STSs in selected countries worldwide over the last 2 decades, together with predicted figures for 2025. METHODS: We extracted official numbers of certified deaths coded as C47 (i.e. malignant neoplasm of peripheral nerves and autonomic nervous system) and C49 (i.e. malignant neoplasm of other connective and soft tissue) according to the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Disease and population estimates from the WHO and the Pan American Health Organization databases. We computed age-standardized (world standard population) mortality rates (ASMRs). We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in trends and to predict death numbers and rates for 2025. RESULTS: The pattern emerging from the number of deaths and ASMRs up to 2018 shows an increase in most countries in both sexes. Around 2015 to 2018, ASMRs differed by 2.5-fold in both sexes with the highest rates being registered in Central-Eastern Europe, North America and Australia, while the lowest ones in Latin America, Japan, and Korea. In 2025, the number of STS deaths is predicted to increase in most countries and both sexes, and unfavourable rates are predicted in Central Europe in both sexes. CONCLUSION: In addition to improvements in STSs registration, unfavourable mortality rates reported in this study reflect inadequate referral of patients with STSs to high-volume multidisciplinary centres, as well as insufficient advancements in STS prevention, diagnosis, and treatments.

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2022 in selected Australasian countries, Russia, and Ukraine with a focus on colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed at predicting cancer mortality rates for the current year for the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Israel, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Korea, and Australia, with a focus on colorectal cancer. METHODS: We retrieved official death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We analyzed mortality for all cancers combined and for 10 major cancer sites from 1970 to 2019, or the latest available year. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2022 using Poisson joinpoint regression models. We estimated the number of averted deaths over the period 1994-2022 because of the decline in mortality rates. RESULTS: Total cancer mortality declined in all countries and both sexes. Russia had the highest total cancer predicted rates for 2022: 156.4/100 000 (world standard) in men and 81.4 in women; the lowest rates were reported in Israeli men (90.6/100 000) and Korean women (44.5/100 000). Between 1994 and 2022, a total of 1 487 000 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Russia, 502 000 in Ukraine, 58 000 in Israel, 102 000 in Hong Kong SAR, 1 020 000 in Japan, 533 000 in the Republic of Korea, and 263 000 in Australia. Colorectal cancer mortality trends were downward for the last decades with favorable predictions for 2022 in both sexes. CONCLUSION: In the countries considered, predicted downward trends started later and were less marked than those in the European Union and the USA. Despite overall favorable predictions, colorectal cancer remains one of the major causes of cancer mortality.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality trends worldwide: An update to 2019.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence, prevalence, mortality and socioeconomic burden are considerable and vary across countries. The aim of the present study was to update the analysis of COPD mortality worldwide using data from the World Health Organization (WHO) up to 2019. METHODS: We obtained COPD mortality and population data for 22 European countries and the European Union (EU) as a whole, 10 American countries and six other countries from the WHO mortality database. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates in both sexes and examined trends by country with joinpoint analysis between 1994 and 2019. RESULTS: Between 2005-2007 and 2015-2017, overall COPD mortality decreased in EU men (-16.3%) but increased in women (12.7%) to reach rates of 14.0/100,000 in men and of 6.4/100,000 in women. In the United States, mortality declined in men to 21.3/100,000 but rose in women to 18.3/100,000. Mortality declined in most Latin American countries and all Asian countries, while an increase in Australian women was observed. CONCLUSION: A steady decrease in COPD mortality was observed in most of countries for men, whilst a different trend was observed in women in several countries. These trends are largely explained by changes in smoking habits, with an additional contribution of air pollution and occupational exposures. Despite past and ongoing tobacco control initiatives, this condition still remains a leading cause of death, in particular in countries with lower socio-demographic indices.

Persisting cancer mortality gap between western and eastern Europe.

BACKGROUND: Over the last three decades, cancer mortality has shown favourable patterns in Europe. Patterns and trends however have been less favourable for most eastern countries. METHODS: We computed cancer mortality rates in western (WE) and eastern European (EE) countries using the official mortality database of the World Health Organisation, using joinpoint regression models to identify significant changes in trends over time. RESULTS: Cancer mortality declined by 1-1.4% annually in WE since 1990, to reach an age-standardised rate (world standard) of 125.4/100,000 men and 81.3/100,000 women in 2016. In contrast, EE rates only started to decline around the 2000s in men and remained stable in women, to reach 171.9/100,000 men and 98.2/100,000 women. Lung cancer rates were 30.8/100,000 men and 14/100,000 women in WE versus 47.1/100,000 men and 15.2/100,000 women in EE. In relative terms, the mortality excess in EE increased from 32 to 37% in men and from 15 to 21% in women, compared with WE. The largest percent excesses were for cancers of the upper respiratory tract, stomach, intestines and lung in men and uterus in women. Prostate cancer rates increased in EE to reach 12.7/100,000 in 2016, whereas they decreased to 10.2/100,000 in WE. Compared with rates in 1990, over the period 1991-2016, about 3.9 million cancer deaths were avoided in WE, but no notable improvements was seen in EE. If cancer mortality rates in EE had been those observed in WE, over 55,000 deaths would have been avoided in 2016. CONCLUSION: Differences in lifestyle patterns, mainly smoking and alcohol, besides different roll-out of improvements in cancer diagnosis and management are the key determinants of the persisting difference in cancer mortality between western and eastern Europe. There is no evidence for the gap to close.

Cancer mortality predictions for 2021 in Latin America.

We estimated cancer mortality statistics for the current year in seven major Latin American countries, with a focus on colorectal cancer. We retrieved official death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organization and the Pan American Health Organization databases. We analysed mortality from all neoplasms combined and for selected cancer sites. We estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for the year 2021 using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint model. Total cancer mortality is predicted to decline in all countries considered for both sexes, with the exception of Argentinian women. The lowest total mortality rates were predicted in Mexico (65.4/100 000 men and 62.3 in women), the highest ones were in Cuba (133.3/100 000 men and 91.0 in women). Stomach cancer rates have been decreasing since 1970 in all countries; colorectal cancer started to decline over recent calendar periods. Rates for this cancer were unfavourable in the youngest age group. Lung cancer trends declined in males and remained comparatively low in all countries except Cuba. In Cuba, lung cancer rates in women overtook those for breast. Mortality from cancers of the breast, (cervix) uterus, ovary, prostate and bladder, as well as leukemia mostly showed favourable trends. A marked variability in rates across Latin American countries persists, and rates were relatively high for stomach, uterus, prostate and lung cancers, as compared to Europe and North America, suggesting the need to improve preventive strategies. Colorectal cancer mortality was relatively low in Latin America, except in Argentina, and short-term predictions remain moderately favourable.

sCD14 Level in Saliva of Children and Adolescents with and without Dental Caries, a Hurdle Model.

OBJECTIVE: Soluble CD14 (sCD14) plays an important role in the innate immune response of the oral cavity. The investigation of this biomarker for detection of carious lesions is an even more actual procedure due to its non-invasiveness and the ease of withdrawal. The purpose of the present observational case-control study was to evaluate whether the quantification of sCD14 in children and adolescent's saliva can discriminate healthy subjects from those suffering from tooth decay. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 164 subjects (6 to 17 years) were selected and divided into 2 groups: those with at least 1 decayed tooth were assigned to group Decayed (n = 82) and those free from dental caries to group Healthy (n = 82). The amount of salivary soluble CD14 was quantified. RESULTS: Mean salivary soluble CD14 was 28.3 ± 10.8 µg/mL in the Healthy group and 22 ± 9.6 µg/mL in the Decayed group. A hurdle model was applied to the data to estimate both the probability of having carious lesions and their number in relation to sCD14 levels. sCD14 was strongly associated (p < 0.01) with an inverse relation to both the probability of having caries and their number (falling rate of 5% per unit CD14 µg/mL). CONCLUSIONS: This data confirms the relationship between sCD14 and the presence of dental caries. However, there is no clear cut off level between healthy and unhealthy subjects, so it is currently not possible to use sCD14 as a biomarker to determine the risk of decays.

Mortality Trends from Urologic Cancers in Europe over the Period 1980-2017 and a Projection to 2025.

BACKGROUND: Patterns and trends in urologic cancer mortality still show geographical differences across Europe. OBJECTIVE: To monitor mortality trends from urologic cancers, including prostate, testis, bladder, and kidney cancers, in Europe. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We carried out a time-trend analysis for 36 European countries using the official World Health Organization database. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We extracted the number of deaths and population data over the 1980-2017 period, and calculated age-standardised (world population) mortality rates for each cancer considered, sex, country, and the European Union (EU) as a whole, at all ages; at ages 35-64 yr for prostate, bladder, and kidney cancers; and at ages 20-44 yr for testicular cancer. For selected major countries, we carried out a joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in trends. We also predicted the number of deaths and rates for 2025, using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint regression model. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Prostate cancer mortality in the EU decreased over recent years, reaching a rate of 10.3/100 000 in 2015 and a projected rate of 8.9/100 000 in 2025. Less favourable trends were observed in eastern Europe, though starting from relatively low rates. Testicular cancer mortality declined over time in most countries, however levelling off in northern and western countries, after reaching very low rates. EU testicular cancer mortality rate in 2015 was 0.3/100 000 at all ages and 0.6/100 000 at ages 20-44 yr. Bladder cancer mortality trends were less favourable in central and eastern countries compared to northern and western ones. The EU rates in 2015 were 5.1/100 000 men and 1.1/100 000 women. Kidney cancer mortality showed less favourable trends, with a slight increase in men and stable rates in women over the past decade in the EU. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from prostate, testis, and bladder cancers, but not from kidney cancer, declined in most European countries, with less favourable trends in most eastern countries. PATIENT SUMMARY: Over the past four decades, mortality from prostate, testis, and bladder cancers, but not from kidney cancer, declined in most European countries. Prostate cancer mortality rates remain lower in Mediterranean countries than in northern and central Europe. Rates for all urologic cancers remain higher in central and eastern Europe.